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2023 October 20 ES Daily Candle

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Temet Nosc,

The good news is that we saw the bear trend coming and if you bought some PUTS you are in good shape. The bad news is that the market  went down as expected and right now their are no signs of a reversal. I usually only jump into the beginning of a trend, make a few dollars and then wait for the next setup. However, based on the ES daily chart the bear trend might continue in to next week. Trends don't last forever, so I hope the Sunday October 22, 2023 candle provides some relief, but if not then I shall take what the market gives. 

Just as in the previous week the ES, MES, SPX and XSP PUT options are in my sights and my targets of choice. There will be six trading days to show me whether to stay in or get out of the PUT options. What goes up, must come down, so I am looking for signs of a bull reversal at some point so I can buy the call options for the bull rally. However, as the candles move closer to crossing below the 200 day simple moving average, the situation still appears bearish. The current daily candle closed at 4271.81 and the recent ask was at 4245. Sunday's candle should open around 4312.125 which should be around the midpoint of the Friday candle. The close of the candle should be around 4305. Considering how strong the trend is I am curious to see how high the price action will go above 4312.125, if the price even goes higher than that at all. 

At this point, I have already taken my profit from last week's entries and now I am fighting the urge to feel I need to make a trade just to be in the market. Even though I have a strong indication of where the market is going, I must be careful. Through experience, I have learned that just when you think you have the market figured out, it does the unexpected. We have been in a bear trend on the weekly chart since September 18, 2023 which is about five consecutive weeks, so I think a reversal should be on it's way. But I am also aware that the market does not care what I think, so take my opinion with a grain of salt and develop your own opinion. The market can only move three ways, up, down, and sideways, but during any of those moves there are investors losing money and making money. The objective is to have more wins than losses, so choose your battles wisely. 

I hope my analysis helps you see something you did not see, or confirmed what you already saw. As always do your own research and manage your risk.